It’s easy to predict gloom and doom for the U.S. economy. But strong growth and job recovery are no pie-in-the-sky fantasies.

FORTUNE — In your sleep you can name 10 reasons 2013 will be lousy for business and the economy. So can I. But analyzing only the downside is a bad habit; missing a boom is at least as dangerous as missing a bust. So let’s imagine the good-news scenario that absolutely no one is talking about. Is it likely? I dunno. Plausible? Absolutely. Here’s what gets us to a 4% growth rate, rising incomes, and low unemployment by year-end:

The revolution in American oil and gas increasingly spreads its benefits through the economy. Our crude-oil production, after declining for the past 20 years, is suddenly rocketing and will keep doing so for the rest of the decade, says the Energy Information Administration’s just-released outlook. Natural-gas production will boom for at least the next three decades. A resulting industrial renaissance is already under way. Chemical and plastics makers — Dow (DOW), Mitsubishi, and others — are building new plants around the country, a stunning turnaround for an industry that has been shutting U.S. plants for years …

Full Article » Lucky 2013: A Case for Economic Good Times